The Case For Getting High-End Rookie Cards Autographed

At the start of 2018, I re-evaluated my collecting habits.  I made the decision to start selling off a large portion of my collection.  My plan was to take a portion of profits and re-invest in high-end cards.  I targeted vintage rookies of all-time greats like Hank Aaron and Wayne Gretzky and in addition, I purchased modern-era refractor rookies of players like Peyton Manning.  Ultimately, my goal was to get all of them autographed.  For decades, the conventional wisdom has been, do not get rookie cards autographed.  Below, I will explain why this is concept outdated and why autographed rookie cards are one of the best ways to grow long-term value.

The Current State Of The Card Collecting Hobby

Coming out of the boom experienced during Covid, the hobby has continued to see tremendous growth.  It has gained pop culture relevancy as influencers, celebrities and athletes themselves are getting involved.  While some collectors worry that we will experience a similar collapse that occurred as a result of the “Junk Wax” era, I believe the hobby will continue to see growth.  It has too much momentum in terms of both new collectors and the amount of money invested into the hobby by companies like Fanatics.

However, there are too many collectors/flippers that are speculating on the future value of prospects.  A large portion of these cards are ultra-modern rookie cards of unestablished players.  While this can be profitable, it carries significant risk.  I believe that most of these cards will significantly drop in value over time.

What Factors Determine The Long-Term Value Of Sports Cards

It is my belief that the long-term value of trading cards is driven by several factors:

1. Player popularity/relevancy: an active player with a large fan base results in greater demand but post career relevancy is also a factor.  Case in point, Michael Jordan cards saw an increase in demand following the conclusion of the documentary, “The Last Dance”.
2. Player performance/accomplishments: not all Hall of Famers are created equal.  For example, Hall of Famer Harold Baines will never be worth more than Rickey Henderson,  who is not only a Hall of Famer but also considered one of the top 50 baseball players of all-time.
3. Supply/demand: card values will not grow if the supply exceeds demand.  This means that high end cards of all-time greats with low card populations are safer bets to maintain/grow value over time.
4. Visual/art appeal: this is a little harder to calculate as beauty is in the eye of the beholder.  However, there is no denying that there is a growing number of collectors that are treating cards like works of art.  Certain sets have reached iconic status such as 1986 Fleer Basketball.

While card values will fluctuate over time, there is less risk involved if you understand the principles above.

Why Autographed High-End Rookie Cards Are A Safe Bet

Nearly 20 years ago, PSA explored the “controversy” of collecting autographed rookie cards.  To summarize: hobby purists view autographed rookie cards as defacing a valuable collectible.  However, interests change over time and autographed rookie cards are one of the hottest segments in the hobby.  Currently collectors place a higher value on pack pulled autographs, however I think this will change over time.  In some cases, pack pulled autographs lack the same visual appeal as a card autographed in-person where you have the ability to choose the pen color and sometimes add an inscription.

Take the example below, comparing two 1998 Bowman’s Best Refractor rookie cards autographed by Peyton Manning.  The one on the left is pack pulled and was signed with a thin sharpie and the one on the right, I got autographed at a paid signing with a blue paint pen.

In cases, where the autograph is on card, I think cards from paid signings have greater visual appeal when signed boldly and/or include inscriptions.  Eventually, I think more collectors will feel the same and it will drive up demand and card values.

Case Study: Barry Sanders 1989 Score

To illustrate the value added by getting a high-end rookie card autographed, we can look at this example using a Barry Sanders 1989 Score rookie card.

PSA Pop PSA 10 (unsigned): 2,300+ with recent comps around $1,200 – 1,350

PSA Pop PSA 10 Auto 10: 120+ with recent comps around $3,250 – 3,500

While Barry Sanders frequently does paid signings where he charges $215 to autograph this card, the low population and high demand results in the autographed version selling for significantly more.

Conclusion

If you had to choose one, which would you rather have in your collection: a pack pulled autograph or an autograph from a paid signing?

I would love to hear your thoughts in the comment section below.